Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, said his forecast is "unconditional and final."
"The polls don't faze me," he told We'll Do It Live in an email exchange.
Norpoth famously called Trump’s upset victory in 2016 when almost all other modelers and pollsters had Hillary Clinton as an overwhelming favorite.
- Since 1996, he has only erred in one election: Republican George W. Bush’s narrow defeat of incumbent Democratic Vice President Al Gore.
- The model relies largely on primary performance, not on opinion polls.
- The only other miss would have been in 1960, when Democrat John F. Kennedy edged out another incumbent vice president, Republican Richard Nixon.
- Democratic challenger Joe Biden, a former vice president, has consistently polled nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in national polls and was recently found to have big leads in six swing states.
- But the president and his advisers have privately accepted that he’s losing, according to reports.
- Even Fox News host Tucker Carlson has warned Trump is at risk of defeat.
"The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Norpoth told Mediate on Wednesday. "The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners.”