CHART OF THE DAY: The Red Wave Hits a Snag

With midterm elections 102 days away, the Republican lead in the battle to recapture control of Congress has been cut in half in only a week, according to a new poll.


The GOP’s lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot is down to five points, with 46% of respondents favoring the GOP compared to 41% for Democrats, per a Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday.

Last week, Democrats trailed Republicans by 10 points, 49% to 39%, in Rasmussen’s Generic Congressional Ballot survey.


The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter said in a recent analysis that “Over the last couple of weeks, there’s been a shift in opinion among many political professionals about Democrats’ chances in the midterm campaign.”

  • “The explanation for this seeming disconnect between the president’s weak approval ratings and stronger showings for Democratic House and Senate candidates seem to be driven by a few factors: a post-Dobbs energizing of the Democratic base, weak and/or flawed GOP senate candidates, and the January 6th hearings. In other words, the media focus has increasingly been centered on issues that are harmful for the GOP,” Walter wrote.
  • “Yet, there’s nothing new about a late summer ‘reassessment’ of midterm assumptions. In fact, like clockwork, the out-party right about now starts to fret that their advantage is slipping, while the in-party sees green shoots springing from a barren landscape.”


A tweet last week by Washington Examiner senior political correspondent David Drucker drove Walter’s point home:

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